Establishing a novel prediction model for improving the positive rate of prostate biopsy

Tao Tao, Deyun Shen, Lei Yuan, Ailiang Zeng, Kaiguo Xia, Bin Li, Qingyu Ge, Jun Xiao

Abstract

Background: At present, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is the primary evaluation index for judging the necessity of prostate cancer (PCa) biopsy. However, there is a high false-positive rate and a low predictive value due to many interference factors. In this study, we tried to find a novel prediction model that could improve the positive rate of prostate biopsy and reduce unnecessary biopsy.
Methods: We retrospectively studied 237 patients, including their age, body mass index (BMI), PSA, prostate volume (PV), prostate imaging-reporting and data system (PI-RADS) v2 score, neutrophil- lymphocyte ratio (NLR), biopsy Gleason score (BGS), and other information. The univariate and multivariate logistic analyses were used to screen out indicators related to PCa. After establishing a prediction formula model, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to assess its prediction performance.
Results: Our study found that age, PSA, PI-RADS v2 score, and diabetes significantly correlated with PCa. Based on multivariate logistic regression analysis results, we created the following prediction formula: Y = 2.599 × PI-RADS v2 score + 1.766 × diabetes + 0.052 × age + 1.005 × PSAD – 9.119. ROC curves showed the formula’s threshold was 0.3543. The composite formula had an excellent capacity to detect PCa with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.91. In addition, the composite formula also achieved significantly better sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic accuracy than PSA, PSA density (PSAD), and PI-RADS v2 score alone.
Conclusions: Our predictive formula predicted performance better than PSA, PSAD, and PI-RADS v2 score. It can thus contribute to the diagnosis of PCa and be used as an indicator for prostate biopsy, thereby reducing unnecessary biopsy.